Dr. Arnd Bernaerts

P. O. Box 730462, D-22124 Hamburg

Arnd Bernaerts

Subjects: Climate change ‘field experiment’, WWII, El Niño, and the arctic winter 1939/40 in Hamburg/Germany and North Europe

January 1st, 2007

Dear Madam and Sir,

Welcome in year 2007. Today, on the 1st January, in Hamburg the temperatures are 8ºC with light rain, and the forecast predicts the same conditions for the coming week. Which is certainly unusual warm. Before coming up with any conclusions, let us make a brief quiz.

What has forthcoming Northern Hemisphere winter 2006/07 in common with war winter 1939/40?

At first glance we find that both winters see an El Niño event, a natural phenomenon in the Equatorial Pacific. By a second assessment, the climate stability is tested by anthropogenic “field experiments”. For many years science is claiming that the industrial release of ‘greenhouse gases’ are changing global climate. In winter 1939/40 Europe saw a much more decisive climate change experiment, by thousand naval ships sailing and fighting in the North Sea and Baltic Sea since WWII commenced on September 1st, 1939.

The naval war experiment immediately produced significant results. After autumn 1772 the autumn 1938 had been the warmest for a half millennium[1]. Although since the end of WWI Europe had been getting warmer every year[2], suddenly Northern Europe was back into the Little Ice Age, respectively experienced the coldest winter for more than 100 years. The dramatic change is well demonstrated by the mean temperatures in the city Hamburg, which is close to the North-, and Baltic Sea (see the graph). The arctic winter was felt from Finland, to England, France, Switzerland, and Eastern Europe until March 1940. The climate change experiment by naval war proved to be a full success.

Now 67 years later, the Pacific has again an El Niño event, albeit a small one, but the autumn 2006 was the warmest for 500 years (Fn.1), and also the December 2006 was unusual warm. Between now (early January) and than the temperature difference in Hamburg is about 25º C. Was this difference caused by naval war alone, or did also the 1939 El Niño event contributed, as claimed recently in a Nature article[3]? The article concludes: “The results suggest that the global climate anomaly in 1940 to 1942 – previously poorly documented – constitutes a key period for our understanding of large-scale climate variability and global El Niño effects.” This winter does not support such a thesis. That there is no such causation with regard to the three artic winters in Northern Europe from 1939-1942 and the event in Pacific is discussed in books and web sites on the impact of naval war on weather and climate (see references on this site).

The authors of the referred Nature article received great attention in the international press two years ago. The discussion on the impact of greenhouse gases is getting “hotter” day by day. Should we any longer ignore the huge ‘field experiments’ by naval war during WWI and WWII? We think not, and offer you the material on this and related websites to form your own opinion.  

Best regards

Arnd Bernaerts

[3] S. Brönnimann, et. al, Extreme climate of the global troposphere and stratosphere in 1940-42 related to El Niño, Nature, Vol. 431, 21 October 2004, p. 971-974.