REALCLIMATE on: „Warming, interrupted“ HERE  ,
 12 July 2009
Commented by ‚oceanclimate’ 21 July 2009

 The sentence from the guest commentary by Kyle Swanson, referring to the paper “Has the climate recently shifted?” (Swanson and Tsonis, 2009) that cashed our attention reads
       “The climate system appears to have had three distinct “episodes”                during the 20th century (during the 1910’s, 1940’s, and 1970’s), and all         three marked shifts in the trend of the global mean temperature, along           with changes in the qualitative character of ENSO variability.”
That is the matter we at ‘oceanclimate’ are talking about since the early 1990s, by demonstrating that on one hand the marked shifts in the late 1910s (the early Arctic warming 1919-1939 : Here) has presumably partly been caused by the Great World War (1914-1918), and that the cooling between 1940 and the 1970s, would have defiantly not have occurred in the way it did, if the naval war activities in Europe and around the world during the World War II had not taken place, as thoroughly explained at: http://www.seaclimate.com/

Kyle Swanson claim that there had been three distinct episodes, would proof wrong if naval war activities from 1939 to 1945 have contributed to interrupt the distinct Arctic warming (1919-1939) for about three decades, and had returned rising since the 1970s again (see Fig). Instead the reference/commentary claims, that “all three marked shifts in the trend of the global mean temperature, along with changes in the qualitative character of ENSO variability”, naming as proof a “number of model simulation”.  One can only wonder for so much ‘believe’ in ENSO, although it represents only a small area of the world oceans, which all contribute to the state of the atmosphere (Climate is the continuation of the oceans).  At least, the Fig.-SST-Anomalies invites to regard the period from 1940 to about 1970 as an interruption of the strong warming trend which started 1919/1920. 

In a recent paper (see: Extreme Winter 1939/40 - PDF) it has been demonstrated, that the extreme winter 1939/40 in Europe did not came from nowhere, but has had its cause in the  immense naval war activities since 1^st September 1939. It became the coldest winter in Central  Europe for more than 100 years. One need only to consult the winter temperature conditions (D/J/F) in Königsberg/ Kaliningrad in the eastern corner of the Baltic Sea. The winter 1939/1940 was clearly extreme and the next two winters as well.  If Kyle Swanson et al. had proved that the cold Europe winters 1939-1942 had nothing to do with WWII, their claim would be more credible.