Subject: IPCC’s ‚Summary for Policymakers, 2007’, and the Arctic Warming during last Century.

March 1^st, 2007

The ‘Big Warming’ at Spitsbergen, winter 1918/19 to winter 1939/40

Dear Madam or Sir,

Dear Friends,

Also with its 4^th Report the IPCC (Fn.1) misses to show competence on recent climatic events, at least with regard to the Arctic Warming in last century. Instead IPCC remains superficial by stating: “Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. Arctic temperatures have high decadal variability, and a warm period was also observed from 1925 to 1945.” (Page 6).

Actually, the strong warming started at the end of WWI in 1918, extremely pronounced at Spitsbergen, as B.J. Birkeland observed in 1930 (Fn.2). While this warming showed significant effect in Greenland from about 1920 to 1932, in Europe the temperature increased until WWII started. The two events even got names: “Greening if Greenland” and “Warming of Europe”, which our websites explain in detail.  The timing can be given very precisely, namely winter 1918/19 (end of WWI) and winter 1939/40 (start of WWII).  

Bengtsson, et.al, basically confirmed this (Fn.3), stating in their conclusion: “The Arctic 1920-1940 warming is one of the most puzzling climate anomalies of the 20^th Century”. But is it really that puzzling? The first step toward clarification would be to come to the same conclusion as this web-site material does, that the ‘Big Warming’ started at the end of WWI, in winter 1918/19, and the second step requires attention to the devastation naval war in sea areas, closely connected to Spitsbergen by the Norwegian- and Spitsbergen Current. When Johannessen et.al.  (Fn.4) conclude: “that the Arctic warming in the 1920s/1930s and the subsequent cooling until about 1970 are due to natural fluctuations internal to the climate system”, it is mere guessing. The pronounced warming since 1919 was most likely closely related to WWI, the ‘subsequent cooling’ by WWII, which got its ‘kick-off’ with arctic war winter 1939/40. Naval war is a sufficient means to influence the ‘internal of the climate system’, namely the oceans.

As long as the IPCC is not even able to get the ‘timing’ of recent arctic warming correct, although the cited papers (Fn.3 & 4) came at least close to it, IPCC competence in making reliable outlooks for forthcoming climate should be not weighted too high. The material available on our sites offer plenty facts and convincing correlations on recent climatic causations. Actually in some cases the best!

With best regards

Arnd Bernaerts

Fn.1; IPCC - Climate Change 2007, WG I: The Physical Science Basis; Summary for Policymakers;
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/docs/WG1AR4_SPM_PlenaryApproved.pdf

Fn.2; ‘Temperaturvariationen auf Spitzbergen’, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, June 1930, p. 234-236).

Fn.3; Bengtsson, Lennart; et.al; The early century warming in the Arctic – A possible mechanism;  Max-Planck Inst. Meteorology; Report 345, 2003, page 14.

Fn.4; Johannessen, Ola M.; et.al; Arctic Climate Change – Observed and modeled temperature and sea ice variability; Nansen Center, Report 218, Bergen 2002; page 17.